TINUBU’S INEC: THE PROSPECTS AND CHALLENGES OF A FREE, FAIR AND CREDIBLE ELECTIONS IN 2027
Elections are a central feature of representatives democracy. For elections to express the will of the electorate, they must be ‘free, fair’ and ‘credible’.
Free, fair and credible elections are largely determined by the electoral body. Nigeria’s independent National Electoral Commission INEC under Professor Mahmood Yakub or anyone as may be later appointed and their subordinates are the major bane and barriers to credible and acceptable elections in Nigeria. While the INEC neutrality is questionable, judiciary has long seized to be the last hope of anybody but a place of judicial trade for the very few with highest influence and highest bidders. So an unbiased electoral system and body for a free, fair and credible elections are non negotiable.
Read more‘Free’ means that all those entitled to vote have the right to be registered and to vote and must be free to make their choice. According to our constitution, every citizen over the age of 18 is entitled to vote.
Also an election will be considered ‘free’ if you are allowed to decide whether or not to vote and vote freely for the candidate or party of your choice without fear or intimidation and or harassment. A ‘free’ election can also be regarded as where you are confident that who you vote for remains your secret.
By ‘Fair’, it means that all registered political parties have an equal right to contest the elections on the same level ground, campaign for voters support and hold meetings and rallies. This gives them a fair chance to convince voters to vote for them.
A fair election also denote an election in which all voters have an equal opportunity to register, where all votes are counted, and where the final results reflect the actual vote totals.
“Credible” implies an open and transparent process especially by the electoral umpire which will make the actual outcome capable of being believed by the more than simple majority of the citizens.
By credible, it also means the outcome of the the whole process is worthy of the citizens’ confidence. The results are reliable and not manipulated. The level of genuine neutrality of the electoral commission dictates the credibility of any election.
Therefore, It’s one thing for the election to be free and fair on the filed on election day across polling units, it’s another thing entirely for the electoral umpire to admit and allow votes of the people to actually be the final outcome or results. The credibility of an election will make it even more acceptable to the losers and runner up without unnecessary litigations that usually accompany every election in Nigeria.
With the exception of the 1959 and the annulled June 12 1993 general elections, elections in Nigeria have always been marred by irregularities and lack of transparency from electoral body, collusion with either ruling or opposition party for manipulation of the election’s outcome, implementing an electoral process with procedures that encourages violence and anarchy . The 1964/65 Western Regional and National elections, the 1979 and 1983 federal election, the 2003 and 2007 presidential and governorship elections were elections that encouraged anarchy as they were generally adjudged far below free, fair and lacked in any measure for credibility test, basically because of INEC collisions with either any of the contending major parties leading to endless litigations in each cases.
Meanwhile, aside the 2015 general elections which can simply be categorised and termed as a mob elections, the 2019 and 2023 general elections overtly revealed that those who voted had done nothing but those who counted and determined the votes are the ones that occupied the Central Processing Unit of the electoral and democratic system as it were very glaring for all to see in those elections.

Despite improved electoral laws and introductions of e-voting machine , B-Vas, there were overt indications of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) been bias, non transparent most especially with uses of even B-Vas, alterations of the election results both on B-Vas and on form EC8, inconclusive elections as a result of materials not timely taken to the polling units on election day.
Collusions with rejected APC national leader Tinubu to upturned the people’s will, as Tinubu who paid their pipers dictated their tune in a supposedly general election meant for majority of the citizens to decide on who governs us for a period of four years. Remarks by incumbent president himself that he bought his way to the presidency also confirmed all these.
Coming to term with the individuals occupying various positions within the electoral umpire such as INEC chairman, INEC commissioner among others, the appointments to these positions are political appointments. This is exactly where and reason the credibility of the electoral outcomes are been compromised and sacrificed in Nigeria. Funny enough is that all those that have been appointed and served as INEC chairman are all university professors who have pleasures in subverting the will of the majority for their personal aggrandizements.
The appointment of the incumbent INEC chairman Prof Mahmood Yakubu was said to have been influenced back the in 2018 by Bola Ahmed Tinubu and as a result, against all odds INEC chairman decided the outcome of 2019 presidential election in favour of Major General Muhammadu Buhari who had lost all credibilities to win the Said election considering the level of hungers, compounding existing Boko Haram with bandit and Fulani herdsmen menace amidst human rights violations, lack of respect for rule of law, etc. To simply put it, ‘the CIA agent Bola Ahmed Tinubu has been in charged, remotiing and controlling INEC before ever becoming the President and Commander in Chief of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.
The prospects of any free, fair and credible elections under him as the sitting president looks very invincible.
Bola Ahmed Tinubu ensured Buhari was re-elected through his puppet INEC chairman Mahmood Yakub in a grand calculation for his 2023 presidential ambition which saw him and his gangs unleashing all forms of deceits, manipulations and impersonation at the highest order including impersonating the clergymen.
The prospects and chances of having a free, fair and credible elections comes 2027 under the Tinubu led APC anti- people government and an INEC that takes orders directly from him will be absolutely impossible.
On the state of the political parties in Nigeria currently, just like the late military Totalitarian dictator General Sani Abacha was to emerged the sole presidential candidate of the all political parties formedy perior his sudden death in 1998, Tinubu and his Mafia camp have been earnestly working to undermine and subvert the democratic processes, moving the country towards a one party system.
The Tinubu and his Mafias who are in APC and in his government are also directly and indirectly dictating the fates of other political parties as PDP is in their hands too, while the same INEC has been the weapon of distabilisation in Tinubu’s hands holding Labour Party (LP) down ineffectively immediately after the 2023 general elections just as was the case with Omoyele Sowore led African Action AAC after 2019 general elections. For the LP, INEC that refused to accept the kangaroo National Convention that returned Barrister Julius Abure as the National Chairman has also refused to upload the names of the Senator Nenadi Esther Usman led National Caretaker Committee of the party even after a Supreme Court judgement sacked else while Chairman Abure. For months now, INEC is still studying the court judgement.
Suffix to this is the fact that this same INEC has made the registration of new party nearly impossible. Even the Social Democratic Party SDP that some aggrieved politicians and citizens seemly running to can’t be adjudged clear of Tinubu’s influence. He was to contest the 2023 presidential election in the SDP platform if APC had denied him the presidential ticket.
Off season elections conducted so far in Edo, Ondo are another testaments of systemic disruption of oppositions in favour of the ruling party. These are the litmus tests if what to expect in 2027.
Removing the bias, unfair and non neutral Professor Mahmood Yakub by Mr President, to nominate another of his stoogees for the National Assembly to rubber stamped again may not help going forward to 2027 as the entire citizens of voting ages are on the verge of been manipulated and shortchanged again.
An electoral reform by the National Assembly that ensure that the sitting president does not nominate top INEC officers may go a long way to reduce underground and unconstitutional interference in the activities of the umpire.
Conclusively, as our forefathers at independence opted for a democratic and egalitarian society, it’s the duties of all of us to mobilize, sensitize citizens on the needs for a credible, free and fair elections. We must continue to speak and stand against Intimidations and brazen harassment of voters as openly seen in 2023 presidential and national assembly elections and most especially the governorship elections in some states and Lagos, Rivers, Kogi in particular.
The essential of governance is to serve the people. Maximum pleasure for greater numbers of people but in the case of Nigeria and her citizens, it has been maximum pains for an absolute majority while the very few and less than minority including the incumbent President are living large in frivolous and lavish spending as seen in their budgetary allocations to themselves. Students loans already cornered. Hunger ruling without mercy, no end in sight to criminalities, terrorism , banditary, Fulani herdsmen menace and kidnapping for ransoms
Nigerians should know that they want to contend and contest not only against brutal Tinubu led APC that believed in antidemocratic highjacking and run with it principles but also against the Tinubu’s INEC that will be ready to hand him a certificate of return even if he failed to contest in the forth coming 2027 general elections.
Infact, as far as 2027 is approaching, factor that can ensure free, fair and credible elections will be an unwavering determinations by Nigerians to enforce it at the polling units level against the ruling party, INEC and institutions and agencies of state or the readiness to go the Malian way or Burkina way in another hand if the need be for a democratic reset.
Sir Dele Abiola
oluabiola81@gmail.com
POLITICS OF EMILOKAN AND POVERTY OF PHILOSOPHY
The philosophy of the politics of ‘Emilokan’ (ie. turn-by-turn) can best be defined as claiming the right of entitlements by individuals or group of people (ethnic) to the topmost position of the president that is responsible in sharing other offices down the lanes and the attending economic fortunes to followers amongst the ruling class.
Read moreThis philosophy has always been there, before proclaimed by Bola Tinubu for reason of personal interest and desperation towards the 2023 general elections. This was the case towards the fourth republic in 1999 as the ruling elites in Nigeria conceded the position of the president by consensus to the Yoruba elites in order to persuade them of denial and wrong doing of the past meted against MKO Abiola who won the presidential election of the June 12 1993 but had it annulled. It was for this consideration that the three existing political parties had a consensus to choose between two Yoruba ruling elites – Olusegun Obasanjo and Olu Falae. Olusegun Obasanjo invariably won the election and steered the affairs of the country for the next eight years (1999 – 2007). So what could have been more than ‘Awalokan’ than this for the Yoruba. But rather than the government led by Olusegun Obasanjo meeting the needs and aspirations of the poor and the working people that include those of the Yoruba; instead the interest of the rich was given priority at the instance of the poor. This therefore put pay to such philosophy as ill informed but only meant to deceive the mass of the people in order to gain political advantage of gathering votes from the Yoruba ethnic group and achieve elite consensus among different factions of the political elites.
A northerner in person of Umar Yar’adua succeeded Olusegun Obasanjo, but could not complete his tenure for reason of ill health and death. The vice president, Goodluck Jonathan completed the two years in office and subsequently spent another four years. By 2015, the northern political elites rose in unison to the occasion to lay claim to rights of entitlements. This was how Mohammed Buhari gained power in 2015 and spent eight years (two terms of four years) in office as president of the federal Republic of Nigeria under the political platform of All Progressive Congress (APC).
At the time Bola Tinubu raised the issue of ‘Awalokan/ Emilokan’ as rights of entitlements in 2022 by way of a slogan to be used in mobilising the people of Yoruba, the political party led by him, All Progressive Congress had been in office for about eight years but a failure. So the need for extra ordinary strategy of mobilisation became imperative as means of appealing to ethnic sentiment in order for the APC and Bola Tinubu to gain votes of the Yoruba. But the Yoruba being politically conscious in comparison with other ethnic groups in the country resisted the alibi of Bola Tinubu and his bedfellows. Lagos, the most urbanised city of the country with huge concentration of the Yoruba and other ethnic groups rejected Bola Tinubu and his political party, APC at the polls. Not only that, he was also rejected in Osun State his country home. He became the most unpopular head of state – president ever elected in the history of Nigeria and he won by only a little over thirty percent of the total votes casted in the presidential election of 2023. The North where he recorded the highest votes would have been embarrassed by the unfolding events of him not having dominant support of the Yoruba.
On assumption of office he further moved rightwards with his anti-poor policies that has subjected the working people to untold and unprecedented hardship in the history of the country. He made good his threat to impose IMF and World Bank policy of removing fuel subsidy (another name for hike in the price of fuel) and dared the labour movement who have been kicking against this. The same day of making his Pius declaration, statistics in respect of the economy revealed how this turned Nigerian situation upside down with consequent implications to the well being of the people.
Nigerian population represents one out of four people in Africa and the highest producer of oil in Africa and Seventh in the world. This put Nigeria as the largest economy in Africa, but today under Bola Tinubu, the economy has receded to number five in Africa after South Africa, Egypt, Algeria and Morocco
Other unfavourable statistics include inflation now put at 31.7percent (from 22.4percent), this is higher in respect of food inflation that jumped to 70percent. 50percent of Nigerian population now live below poverty line of $1 per day. The rate of underemployment and unemployment stand at 22percent and 33percent respectively. Youth unemployment is 53.40percent.
The value of the local currency – Naira depreciated by 500percent but the wages of Nigerians only increased by 233percent. Such minimum wage of N70,000 per month could not buy a bag of rice that rose to not less than N85,000 for 50kg. While N30,000 minimum wage per month on being introduced in 2019 could buy about one and a half bag of 50kg rice sold for N19,000. The minimum wage is therefore not able to meet the basic needs of the working people; while the people in government choose luxurious kind of life, thereby making social inequality inevitable by increasing the huge gap between the rich and the poor.
Not a little money finds itself away from the country’s treasury by way of the transaction for corruption. For instance, a report confirms how $400billion out of $700 billion revenue of the country ended up in way of corruption. The imbalance in the economy skewed against the working people is so much and alarming. This is the more reason that while the poor find it difficult to feed and cry of hunger six average banks – Wema, Stanbic, Access, UBA, GTB, and Sterlin Bank recorded superfluous profits of N3.11Trillion (2023). These are the banks that find it difficult to give out loans to grow businesses as the interest rate of over 20percent offered is killing to make any profit. Infrastructural deficiency especially in the energy sector has been a serious hindrance in the way of growing the economy. Not a few companies are leaving in drove for this reason. Accumulated debts earlier put at $91.46billion as at last year has increased in geometrical proportion under the present government. The government instead of addressing the varied problems and challenges confronting the working people, they care less but compounding the problems by introducing different types of taxes and increasing the existing ones (cost of airtime and data, bank charges, electricity charges, etc,) to be paid by the average Nigerians who are struggling for survival.
Federal government led by Bola Tinubu wants the rest of the poor Nigerians to follow his dictation on austerity measures but themselves engaged in stupendous spending as follows:
- Expenses on the last Hajj pilgrimage – N500billion
- National Assembly Car Park – N6billion
- National Recreational Facilities – N4billion
- Office of the First Lady cars – N1.5billion
- Buying more presidential aircraft and Yatcht for president convenience.
This attack on the economic well being of the working people is responsible for having 133million (62.99percent) of Nigerians as multidimensional poor. This caused the provocation and inevitable resistance of the youths to express their hanger with the 2020 and 2024 #EndSARS and #EndBadGovernance protests respectively across the country.
The successive governments of APC in the last twelve years led by Mohammed Buhari and Bola Tinubu have been one of insensitivity to the plights of the working people. Tinubu in the last two years has come to expose the Abacha in him as a typical dictator in the way he clamped down on the youths, many of whom were minors for protesting against hunger that is their lots. Some of the protesters were killed and maimed while some others arrested were moved from Kano to Abuja without the knowledge of their families. These protesters were badly treated while in the custody of correctional services as they were denied food as a weapon of submission. On the next adjourned date in court report had it how one of the protesters could not withstand the rigours of detention and this led him to collapse in court when their case was to commence.
The action of the Bola Tinubu led central government in the recent period in Rivers State where he declared the state of emergency and thereby removed the governor, Siminalaye Fubara and the deputy governor, Ngosi and the other legislators from office while installing a sole administrator (retired military officer) for the next six months amounts to another aberration tantamount to illegality and dastardly breach of the constitutional order. There is no provision of the constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria giving the president such power to act in this way. Such action is therefore superfluous and a negation of a federalist constitutional order. This is a president who came to power upon the promise of a true federalism but instead beheading the existing federalist principle and praxis however imperfect this might be in practice.
It is ridiculous to note that the state of emergency was declared in Rivers State by the president where there was relative peace but political family disagreement; while the government felt unconcerned about the situation in parts of the North and East where challenges of insecurity is obvious even for the deaf. This is a clear indication that politics was involved in the declaration rather than the state of war, social disorderliness and natural calamity – conditions stipulated by the constitution as requisite for the declaration of state of emergency.
The philosophy of Emilokan should therefore be understood for what it is, as one that stands for opportunism to benefit only the rich class while the poor and working people are made poorer and their life span being shortened. It is in this sense that Bola Tinubu led government can best be described as a killer, a typical way of defining a killer by means of manslaughter.
By Biodun Olamosu
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